Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings: Who I'm Higher/Lower On Than Expert Fantasy Rankings

Welcome to the Week 4 fantasy football rankings edition of Cupps’ Cupboard! Every Friday this season, I’m going through the early iteration of my rankings for the upcoming week of games - identifying the players I have the biggest deltas on compared to Fantasy Life’s expert consensus, along with examining advanced metrics and utilization data.

As someone with a data-heavy background and overall approach to fantasy football, my rankings are created using a blend of several inputs:

Fantasy Life's weekly fantasy football projections, adjusted using fantasy football defense vs. position (DvP) rankings
Prediction market data (essentially taking the current prices on various yardages, touchdowns, receptions, etc., and creating implied fantasy point projections)
Vegas prop lines (rush/rec yards + receptions for pass catchers, pass/rush yards for quarterbacks). I will commonly refer to this as a player’s ‘Vegas Base’ projection: essentially, the floor a player offers without any touchdown odds

Using these sources as a baseline, I create my own hybrid projection system for each position and adjust from there.

Let’s get right into it.

Quarterbacks I Am Higher On In My Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

Tyler Shough

Fantasy Life: QB9
My Rank: QB4 (+5)

I know, ranking Tyler Shough as the QB4 overall feels a bit unhinged … but the data behind his expected Week 4 performance is absolutely absurd. He doesn’t look like anything crazy in Fantasy Life’s Defense vs. Position (DvP) adjusted projections - in fact, he comes out as a borderline QB1 - but the market is all over Shough this week:

21.1 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (QB3)
11.9 Vegas base projection (QB4)

If I have Shough, I am firing him up as a true high-end QB1 in week 4. The upside is massive here.

Bryce Young

Fantasy Life: QB12
My Rank: QB10 (+2)

Bryce Young has one game where he doesn’t completely light the world on fire, and he’s immediately being talked about outside the backend QB1 range. I can’t get behind that - especially in a matchup against the Detroit Lions, who rank 31st in DvP, giving up an extra 6.6 points to the QB position on average this season!

The market shares the positive sentiment on Young. He’s QB7 in implied prediction market data, and QB8 in Vegas base projection. I’m going right back to the Young well in Week 4 against the Lions.

QBs I'm Lower On In My Fantasy Football Rankings For Week 4

Jalen Hurts

Fantasy Life: QB6
My Rank: QB11 (-5)

The data really doesn’t love Jalen Hurts this week, plain and simple. The Rams are 4th in DvP against QBs, allowing 3.8 fewer points per game to the position on average. The market data is rough as well:

18.5 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (QB12)
10.6 Vegas base projection (QB15)

Hurts and the Eagles offense struggled last week against a softer Bears defense, and it definitely does not get any easier in week 4.

Kyler Murray

Fantasy Life: QB11
My Rank: QB16 (-5)

The Fantasy Life expert consensus is a lot higher than the data suggests on Kyler Murray in Week 4. Miami seems like a soft matchup, but they’re actually 5th in DvP against QBs, allowing 3.45 fewer points on average to the position. When you adjust for DvP, Kyler comes out as the QB23 in Week 4.

I do think this is a bit aggressive, but prediction market data and Vegas data don’t love Kyler either, having him as the implied QB13 and QB16, respectively.

Access My Full Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

Running Backs I Am Higher On In My Week 4 Fantasy Ranks

Alvin Kamara

Fantasy Life: RB32
My Rank: RB24 (+8)

With Travis Etienne officially being put on IR and set to miss at least the next 4 weeks, get ready to see Alvin Kamara in the RB2 conversation on a weekly basis. While the Falcons are 4th in DvP against RBs this season (-4.08 points on average against the position), the market is confident Kamara will serve as the lead back in New Orleans:

11.4 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (RB23)
7.1 Vegas base projection (RB22)

There’s a chance Kendre Miller plays a larger role than the market is giving him credit for, but Kamara’s receiving role should provide him a solid floor regardless. I’m firing him up as a strong backend RB2 play in Week 4.

Cam Skattebo

Fantasy Life: RB17
My Rank: RB13 (+4)

After Week 1, I was NOT feeling good about my Cam Skattebo shares. Devin Singletary was the primary receiving back, and Skattebo was converted into a one-dimensional bruiser role. Luckily, things seem to have gotten back on track since then. Singletary was a healthy scratch in Week 3, and Skattebo’s routes have bumped up every week this season.

Market data agrees with the bullish sentiment this week, where the Giants get the Arizona Cardinals:

14.9 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (RB13)
9.3 Vegas base projection (RB14)

Skattebo’s role is extremely fantasy-friendly right now; the offense just needs to catch up. I think they do so in this one.

RBs I'm Lower On In My Fantasy Rankings For Week 4

Saquon Barkley

Fantasy Life: RB13
My Rank: RB17 (-4)

It appears I have Saquon Barkley and Cam Skattebo flipped with my Fantasy Life colleagues - Barkley comes in as my RB17 this week. The Eagles play the Rams, who rank 3rd in DvP against RBs (-4.97 points per game on average), which puts Saquon as the DvP-adjusted RB28.

I’m not quite that bearish on him, but the market appears hesitant on him in this matchup as well:

13.8 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (RB16)
9.2 Vegas base projection (RB15)

If you have Barkley, you’re most likely going to have to start him. I’d just temper expectations in a tougher matchup here.

Omarion Hampton

Fantasy Life: RB23
My Rank: RB29 (-6)

After a disastrous start to the season, Hampton has been tumbling down rankings every week. I don’t think he’s tumbled enough here, coming in as the consensus RB23. I have him way down at RB29 as a mid-tier RB3.

First off - the role is completely brutal. Hampton’s Utilization Score of 38.9 in Week 3 put him as the RB39 that week. Keaton Mitchell continues to get more involved (along with a bit of Kimani Vidal getting sprinkled in), and all of a sudden, we’re dealing with a true committee in a terrible offense.

The market agrees:

8.4 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (RB33)
5.9 Vegas base projection (RB29)

I would be actively looking to get Hampton out of my lineups, and preferably onto someone else’s roster before this week.

Wide Receivers I Am Ranking Higher In My Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

Mack Hollins

Fantasy Life: WR52
My Rank: WR39 (+13)

It’s no secret that the Patriots offense has looked like one of the worst units to start the year, but Mack Hollins has sneakily been commanding some awesome usage. His 76.8 Utilization Score in Week 3 put him at WR20, and he’s quickly becoming the WR to roster in New England.

In Week 4, the market has some pretty solid projections on Hollins:

8.4 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (WR29)
6.2 Vegas base projection (WR33)

In a matchup against Buffalo that *should* be high-scoring if Drake Maye can figure it out, Hollins would be one of my favorite plug-and-play options.

Malik Washington

Fantasy Life: WR46
My Rank: WR36 (+10)

For the third week in a row, I am back to inform you that I am higher on Malik Washington than the market. Washington continues to shine when looking at his usage - 19.9 expected points in Week 3 put him as the WR8 (!!!) for the week.

Obviously, in a low-octane offense, these expected points rarely make the full transition to actual points. Still, it shows he is clearly Willis’ #1 target in this offense, and he could potentially be even MORE involved with De’Von Achane going down for the season. I like Washington as a back-end WR3 with a stable floor on a weekly basis, especially in PPR formats.

WRs I am Low On In My Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings

DJ Moore

Fantasy Life: WR22
My Rank: WR26 (-4)

I’m having an especially hard time getting excited about DJ Moore this week. The Bills get the Patriots, who rank 2nd in DvP against wide receivers this season (-6.36 points per week on average), which drops his Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection to a measly 7.3 half-PPR points.

The market is also a bit timid on DJM in this spot:

9.9 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (WR22)
6.7 Vegas base projection (WR29)

The upside is always there for DJM in this offense, but I think he’ll need to find the end zone to be super effective in this matchup.

Rome Odunze

Fantasy Life: WR40
My Rank: WR58 (-18)

There is not a lot to like about Odunze this week. His Utilization Score through three weeks sits at 51.5, putting him at WR49. While the Jets may seem like a friendly matchup, they are actually very difficult for WRs - so far this season, they rank 1st in DvP (-7.48 points per week to the position group). Not what you like to see for a Bears offense that already projects less pass-happy with Case Keenum at the helm.

The market is also relatively low on Rome here:

8.4 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (WR29)
6.2 Vegas base projection (WR33)

I’d look for other options this week - there might even be some plug-and-play guys available on the waiver wire, like Mack Hollins, that I would prefer to start.

Tight End I Am High On In My Fantasy Football Rankings For Week 4

Dalton Schultz

Fantasy Life: TE12
My Rank: TE9 (+3)

I know Nico Collins is back, but I still think Schultz will play a valuable role in the Texans offense this week. Houston plays the Cowboys in Week 4, who currently rank 30th in DvP against the TE position. When adjusting for DvP, it bumps Schultz all the way up to TE5 for the week.

The market isn’t quite THAT bullish on Schultz, but it still has him in that mid-TE1 range:

8.8 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (TE8)
6.5 Vegas base projection (TE8)

I wouldn’t quit on Schultz just yet. Fire him up this week in your TE1 spot.

TE I'm Lower On In My Week 4 Fantasy Rankings

Jake Ferguson

Fantasy Life: TE16
My Rank: TE23 (-7)

On the other side of the ball, we have Jake Ferguson, who I feel markedly worse about. While Dallas is a soft matchup for TEs, the same cannot be said about Houston, who currently rank 10th against the position.

Ferguson’s market data is also not great:

6.2 implied fantasy points in prediction markets (TE20)
4.2 Vegas base projection (TE20)

I’d prefer to keep Ferguson on the bench here if I could, as he falls way out of the TE1 range in this week’s projections.