Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 4

• Spread: Packers -3.5
• Total: 39.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): GB 21, TB 19

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview

It doesn't take too intense a film session to come to the conclusion that these 2026 Packers are one of the most one-dimensional teams in the NFL. Investors in the GB pass attack catch a subsequent breakthrough in boosted volume, but won’t ever reach a fantasy ceiling without the sustainability added by some semblance of a run game.

No exaggeration, this may be the stone-cold worst ground attack we’ve seen in some time.  From 32nd in EPA/attempt (-0.39), yards/carry (3.0), and yards after contact/rush (2.04), Green Bay’s the only team left without a +20-yard rush or rushing TD, and that’s not all. The Packers’ 48.7 rushing yards/game is on pace to finish +27% lower than any team I had on record … in the past 25 years!

If it feels like time to pack up the ground attack, Matt LaFleur’s minuscule 26.7% rush rate’s one step ahead of you. You won’t find an answer anywhere in the spreadsheet, but for my money, Kaleb Johnson’s looked the best between the tackles so far. Then, if we grant him some extra grace for boarding a moving train, maybe it gets better with repetitions. Honestly, best bet’s to just run away …

An absolute fantasy nightmare in the backfield creates a conversely simple situation for receiving. With so many viable quarterbacks, there’s no need to force Jordan Love into lineups, though I think this pure-pass approach could benefit him in certain matchups — like this one against a Tampa Bay team grading bottom-3 in pressure creation.

GB’s the only team to currently support two separate WR1s with no signs of slowing. Both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden look like tremendous draft day values, with wiggle room for Tucker Kraft and even Skyy Moore to join the club… if we can get a hint of efficiency (Love’s 52.4% completion rate trails only Jameis Winston).

Curious if the general stink surrounding these Packers might make their players more readily available in a trade — which, by the way, is always worth kicking the tires on.

• Start: Jordan Love (QB16), Christian Watson (WR11), Matthew Golden (WR20), Tucker Kraft (TE8)
• Sit: MarShawn Lloyd (RB41)
• Sleepers: Kaleb Johnson (RB38), Skyy Moore (WR92)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you didn’t like the winless Bucs before Baker Mayfield dislocated a thumb on his throwing hand, you definitely won’t be thrilled by the prospect of turning to rookie Jalon Daniels. The second-year UDFA spent six years at Kansas University, putting up some decent stats by the end of his tenure, though the 36:19 TD:INT ratio over his last two years doesn’t inspire much confidence. Prepare to abandon ship …

Just as Bucky Irving’s top-10 backfield opportunity share (76.8%) started seeming like a true victory at ADP, a blown pass protection snap cost him the fourth quarter in a competitive contest. Backup Kenneth Gainwell out-snapped him 17-3 in the final quarter of a one-score game, though he didn’t do much of anything with the opportunity (-10 RuYd, 2-14-0). Doubtful there are lasting effects for Irving,  but definitely worth monitoring.

The most desperate fantasy GMs might think about adding Gainwell as a stash, with a potentially emerging receiving role plus lots of negative game scripts on the horizon. Just trying to make the best of a bad situation …

Speaking of suboptimal scenarios, who knows how to parse the Tampa pass game going forward. Optimists will stand pat to see where the dust settles, but no one’s going to blame you for fortifying backup plans immediately. Buccaneer routes, targets, and catches remain so focused around the same four players it’s even difficult to move on from someone like Ted Hurst, though that reality could prove inevitable.

Best bad advice I can give? Hope for the best but expect the worst … maybe we catch lightning in a bottle and Daniels’ rushing upside plus surrounding cast is enough to keep the ship afloat.

• Start: Bucky Irving (RB19), Emeka Egbuka (WR36)
• Sit: Jalon Daniels (QB31), Cade Otton (TE27)
• Sleeper: Chris Godwin (WR58)

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

In the biggest non-shocker of the weekend, a debuting UDFA learns rather quickly just how difficult this league is. Green Bay decides to show up and wins decisively, but to fantasy gamers’ delight, Jalon Daniel looks serviceable — anyone who made that preemptive add’s looking very sharp right about now (wink).