College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Ohio State vs. Iowa
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College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Ohio State vs. Iowa

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Ohio State versus Iowa College Gameday Game of the Week, with betting picks, odds, predictions and a player prop bet.

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After beating Michigan at the buzzer, Iowa returns home to host Ohio State in this week’s Gameday Game of the Week, with the winner putting itself in a great position to make a run to the Big Ten conference championship. With Hank Brown struggling to air out the ball, expect the Buckeyes to neutralize the Hawkeyes offense, leading to a lopsided affair.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Betting Odds for Week 5

  • Spread: Ohio State -13.5 (-110, Fanatics)
  • Moneyline: Ohio State (-575, DraftKings)
  • Game Total: 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110, BetMGM)

Just when it looked like Iowa was going to fall short, the Hawkeyes were able to mount a comeback and defeat the Wolverines 20-19. Even though the win was certainly impressive, Iowa’s performance on offense was eyebrow-raising, generating just 4.8 yards per play while the Wolverines outgained them 429-285.

Ohio State, on the other hand, is firing on all cylinders, skating past Illinois to the tune of 42-19 while hovering near the top of the board in offensive success rate and PPA. Jeremiah Smith was instrumental in the Buckeyes' win over the Fighting Illini, hauling in 12 receptions for 217 yards and four touchdowns.

To complement the offense, the Buckeyes also excel on defense at multiple levels of the field, reducing the amount of variance they have to combat. With both offenses trending in different directions, oddsmakers are expecting Ohio State to set a scoring pace too fast for Iowa to keep up with, listing the Buckeyes at -13.5.

Prediction & Pick For Ohio State vs. Iowa Week 5 Matchup

  • The Pick: Iowa Team Total u15.5 (-104, FanDuel)

While the offense has hogged the spotlight, the Buckeyes have quietly been dominant on defense, entering Week 5 ranked second overall in defensive pass success rate and 14th in havoc. With the back end creating disruptions at a high rate, opposing QBs are forced to rely on quick outs for minimal success, keeping them comfortably behind the sticks.

Unfortunately for Iowa, the Hawkeyes lack the big-play ability that is needed to counter the Buckeyes suffocating coverage, limping into the contest ranked 136th in pass-play explosiveness. With no threat of getting beat over the top, the Buckeyes can stack the box at a higher rate and neutralize Iowa’s ground game, giving the Hawkeyes no clear path to the red zone.

Even with the Hawkeyes defense playing at a high level, Ohio State is a drastic step up in quality of opponent, making it difficult to get the ball back in Brown’s hands in quick order. Julian Sayin has had no issue with methodically moving the ball down the field while controlling time of possession, leading an offense that ranks in the top 12 in points per opportunity.

This will lead to a decline in Iowa’s total number of possessions on offense, improving the probability the Hawkeyes are held under the team total. If you want to diversify your risk, place a separate wager on Ohio State to cover the spread at no higher than -14, with the Buckeyes possessing clear advantages on both sides of the ball.

Best Player Prop Bet For Ohio State vs. Iowa

Hank Brown - u0.5 Passing Touchdown (-122, FanDuel)

Correlating this prop with the under on Iowa’s team total, fewer possessions on offense will also chip away at the Hawkeyes' total number of scoring opportunities, lowering Brown’s chances of throwing for a touchdown. When inside the 20, Brown has struggled to connect with his pass catchers, stumbling down to 90th in pass play EPA and 105th in finishing drives.

To make matters worse for Brown, he lacks the mobility that is needed to scramble away from the Buckeyes' pressure, forcing him to weave the ball through narrow passing lanes in the shortened field while his pass catchers have less time to break away from the secondary. With scoring opportunities coming at a premium, the Hawkeyes may keep the ball on the ground, trading pass attempts for carries to negate the possibility of Brown throwing an interception.

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